A seasonal outlook report released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the Nile Basin Initiative warns of a significant decline in water levels across rivers and lakes during the current dry season, posing risks to both human populations and ecosystems.

ICPAC and NBI are urging countries in the Nile Basin region, including Rwanda, to adopt urgent water conservation measures, noting that the 2026 dry season is expected to be unusually severe.

The dry spell, which began in June and is projected to last through September, will be characterized by elevated temperatures likely to accelerate the drying up of rivers and lakes, potentially triggering drought conditions.

According to the forecast, parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Sudan will continue to receive rainfall, albeit below their normal seasonal averages, while much of the rest of the region will experience intense dry conditions.

Across the wider region—and particularly in Rwanda—rainfall is expected to fall below normal levels for this time of year.

The impact of these conditions will be evident in declining river flows. The Akagera River, for instance, is projected to see a sharp reduction in discharge levels. At the Kanzenze hydrological station in Bugesera, flow rates are expected to drop from about 204,000 liters per second in June to just 73,000 liters per second by September.

Reduced inflows from tributaries feeding the Akagera within Rwanda are likely to result in lower water supply to households by WASAC, as well as diminished water levels in hydropower reservoirs—particularly at the Rusumo plant—according to the 2026 ICPAC–NBI seasonal outlook report.

The report recommends a range of mitigation measures for Rwandan authorities and stakeholders, including strengthening water storage for irrigation and livestock, promoting household water harvesting, rehabilitating water distribution infrastructure, and investing in alternative sources such as boreholes, while safeguarding existing water reserves.

Executive Director of NBI, Nestor Niyonzima, emphasized the urgency of the situation, calling for the report to be widely disseminated. He urged that it be shared with decision-makers and all institutions involved in water resource development and management.

The Nile River—one of the world’s most vital waterways—is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Its basin spans ten African countries: Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.